BracketDobberSBN
Arlington, VA
Male, 34
I'm currently the resident bracketologist for SB Nation and I've been attempting to accurately project the NCAA Tournament field since 2006. My goal is not only to be correct in picking at-large teams and the seeding of all 68 teams, but to inform the public about the process and how the sometimes bashed college basketball regular season does really have importance. I'd be glad to answer your questions on how the field of 68 is put together, but I won't be much help with your bracket picks.
I think this happens to conferences more than teams, with certain leagues being viewed as tougher and their teams getting a boost in seeding (or selection) as a result. This season, the Big East falls in this boat (as I think Villanova and Cincinnati may be seeded a bit too highly), while the Pac-12 didn't get enough respect (see what Oregon and Cal did yesterday, though both did get a geography boost).
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It's only annoying when they decide to bash the regular season as being meaningless, especially if they spend their time following pro sports with a less restrictive postseason (by percentage of qualifiers). It does get tiresome to hear someone to say the regular season doesn't matter in a sport where 68 of 347 teams play 30 or so games to make the postseason when they follow a sport that has 30 teams playing 82 games for a spot in a 16-team bracket.
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This is one of the toughest questions I've been asked here, so it's taken me awhile to come up with a decent answer. I'm going to say the inconsistency between the Committee's stated emphasis on placing the top four seed lines in true seed order (which appears in the Principles and Procedures document) and their actual, demonstrated emphasis on geography. Duke, in particular, suffered because of this incongruence this past season.
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I wish the field was a little bigger and that there was more of a potential for mid-majors to get a chance at the championship. To me, it seems like the new system will probably be similar to the current one with the only difference being two more teams are invited. The small step is significant though.
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The numbers (RPI and strength of schedule) are important, but delving into those numbers is even moreso. I tend to study quality wins (against teams in the Top 100 in the RPI, with those in the Top 50 carrying more weight), bad losses (outside of the Top 100, with far more emphasis placed on losses against teams ranked 150th or worse ... and yes, I'm looking at you, Virginia Cavaliers). Non-conference scheduling and performance away from home is also a significant factor, since the Committee chair says something to this effect every season.
Finally, I look at whether a team has won its regular season league title, the tournament title, or both ... for seeding purposes at least. The Committee has historically given seeding bumps to teams who have claimed both (see Kansas and Louisville this season) while punishing teams that win neither (Duke).
Intangibles are tricky. The eye test is helpful, but mostly for seeding and not selection. More often than not, the numbers win out over what happens on the court, especially for teams outside of the power conferences. Middle Tennessee's selection this time around gives me hope on that front.
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I'd say no..projecting the field has little to nothing to do with forecasting results. What I do is more backward-looking than forward-looking.
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I've been with SB Nation since 2009, since even before SBNation.com started. Previously, I just had my own Blogspot and Blogger sites. Our college blogs manager found me on twitter and the tech team got Blogging the Bracket up in time for March 2009.
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